This is why UPRO, the 3x leveraged S&P ETF, has delivered close to 5x the returns of the SPX since its inception instead of the proposed 3x. I found your very interestingly report and the idea to put leverage to this portfolio is very very interesting for my portfolio which I want to build soon. Do your due diligence and read the fine print. The All Weather Portfolio is a good, low risk approach to asset allocation suitable for long-term investing and dollar cost averaging. Using mostly low-cost Vanguard funds, we can build the All Weather Portfolio (here’s the pie) like this: To add this pie to your portfolio, just click this link and then click “Invest in this pie.”. In brackets shows the ETFs that I will use for the simulation: Running this portfolio strategy with the same settings as before I got the following results between 1/2008 and 1/2017: Annualised Return: 5.61%Maximum Drawdown: -15.71%CAR/MDD: 0.36Profit Factor: 2.24Net Profit: $63429.11Ending Equity: $163429.11. Continue this thread level 1. To gain exposure to gold, an ETF such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD A-) can be used. Joe Marwood is not a registered financial advisor or certified analyst. At no additional cost to you, if you choose to make a purchase or sign up for a service after clicking through those links, I may receive a small commission. This is simply taking the unedited All Weather Portfolio and applying leverage to it. Thanks! How did you model the last portfolio going back to 1992 when many of the leveraged ETFs you’re backtesting didn’t exist then? Yeah, laziness is good – but…. 8.2 % Utilities provided the lowest volatility, highest return, and highest risk-adjusted return (Sharpe): Some other macroeconomic things to consider are: So, at least for the relatively small 7.5% slice for the All Weather Portfolio, I would submit that Utilities are a fine – and likely superior – replacement for Commodities. That doesn’t mean you should blindly copy it. Does the recent market turmoil have you reevaluating your true risk tolerance and considering an “all-weather” approach? There will be more risk, of course, from simply owning stocks. No additional info required. The portfolio idea was created by the legendary Ray Dalio, founder of … The maximum drawdown is low at under 15% and the portfolio’s worst year is only -3.2%. Joe Marwood is not a registered investment advisor and nothing on this site is to be regarded as personalized investment advice. Over the long term this should not only outperform the S & P 500 index, but also the vanilla All Weather fund due to its leverage, provided one rebalances at least quarterly. I am very interested how you are planning to build it and would be thankfull if you would share your solution! I wanted to ask how you backtested AW2x and AW3x back from 2006 or 2007 considering those ETFs were not around back then, especially the ones like UPRO, that would be down 95+% during the 2008 crash. I tried but i dont know where to put the 2 or 3x allocation and where to put the negative Cash Position. You can add the risk parity 3x pie to your M1 Finance portfolio by clicking here. Also, the unleveraged All Weather Portfolio definitely fits the “lazy portfolio” designation, as the investor does not need to change allocations as time passes. Andrew Tobias, in The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, maintains that “it is a fact that 90% of all people who play the commodities game get burned. 2. Joe Marwood is an independent trader and the founder of Decoding Markets. The P/E ratio of an index doesn’t really tell the same information as the P/E of an individual stock. The All Weather Portfolio is an investment portfolio whose purpose is to perform well in different economic environments. Sounds like it may be a case of overfitting. Similarly, don’t put your entire portfolio in a strategy like this. I was just wondering, since I also never invested or traded a leverage ETFs, if it is really possible to hold for example UPRO for a longer period of time? I was able to replicate your results after enabling ‘capital reconstructions, special dividends and ordinary dividends’. In theory, a 3x ETF would be wiped out if the underlying index drops by 33.4% in one day, as you’ve noted. We’d be exposed to more interest rate risk and we’d be betting that stocks are more likely to go down. I explore different rebalancing intervals at the end of this post. Which one would you choose? Beginners Start Here – 9 Steps to Start Building Wealth, What Is the Stock Market? Thank you for the article. He worked as a professional futures trader and has a passion for investing and building mechanical trading strategies. . That pie can be found here. Really glad you and your friends have found the content useful. Also, did you take into account the higher ETF fees ? JB Marwood. I never felt comfortable anyway with using the leveraged oil/gas ETF’s (DIG and GUSH) as a proxy for the prescribed “broad commodities.” I now believe an objectively superior approach would be to use Utilities in its place, in any portfolio. Thanks Gavin! You can add this pie to your M1 Finance portfolio here, but stay tuned for the variation using Utilities below, as I don’t feel completely comfortable using DIG. You could possibly continually roll options with short expiration dates, but that’d be cumbersome. I get that you say don’t time the market but this situation doesn’t appear normal. Below I explain why Utilities are probably the best choice, and I’ve included a pie link for that option. I was previously achieving that rough backtest using a negative cash position to simulate borrowing. Do your own due diligence. The backtest below compares 1x (“normal”), 2x, and 3x versions of the All Weather Portfolio, all using Utilities instead of Commodities and all using 2x gold since a 3x gold ETF is no longer available. Past performance is not indicative of future results. And, last question… if you have a porfolio that lets you use cheap (1-2%) actual margin, is there a benefit to implementing the 2x AWP by levering up the individual component ETFs to a 2x weight, instead of using a 2x levered ETF? Xavier, thanks so much for the kind words. It’s not just 20% to each asset. Plenty to choose from. Investors outside the U.S. can find the ETFs below on eToro. Most retirement plans use a portfolio which is simply a combination of total stocks and total bonds. I have 2 questions. He says that you need to have some of your portfolio in gold and commodities to balance the portfolio during periods of accelerated inflation – which can hurt both stocks and bonds. For … Do your own due diligence. Update June 22, 2020: With the recent market turmoil, Credit Suisse announced today that it plans to delist some of its 3x leveraged VelocityShares™ ETN’s, including UGLD. But yes you’re right, less vol. Secondly, being new to the market and having that time horizon are even more reasons to not use leverage with the bulk of one’s portfolio in my opinion. We also wouldn’t expect the CAGR’s or average returns of these portfolios to be perfect multiples of one another. Please see the full disclaimer. All weather. I have told the system to start on the first day of the year and sell on the last day of each year in order to simulate an annual rebalance. Good luck with your test on different bonds. Great information and really detailed. Conceivably, adding the VIX as a hedge would help. If you’re curious to see the math, check out this page. We saw these circuit breakers in action in the recent COVID crash. Hello Mirco, I am from Germany aswell and wondering how you plan to build the Portfolio for yourself since due to the EU-regulations it is not possible to buy most of the american ETFs by using a regular Broker. I’m relatively young with a long investing horizon and a high risk tolerance. The main requirement is to alter the position size per symbol and make sure we are placing our trades on the right days. However, levering up this same asset allocation may dramatically improve returns while still maintaining a sensible level of portfolio risk similar to that of an unlevered 100% stocks position, depending on the amount of leverage used. As you explained, with beta slippage, sometimes it has a negative effect and sometimes a positive effect. Demand for utilities stays relatively constant, which is a significant reason why utilities perform well during market downturns. This factors in their daily resetting, fees, and borrowing costs, so returns shown are net of those things. In this post I discussed how these diversifiers do what I just described. 1. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly. Maximum drawdown -13.9%. Consistent with modern portfolio theory, we’re interested in how these assets contribute to the performance of the portfolio as a whole, not individually in isolation. The assumption of more risk, especially with the use of leverage, gives you the potential for more reward, but also the potential for greater losses. And then I’d imagine options on bond ETFs would be tricky too. Your email address will not be published. Using Utilities Instead of Commodities (and REITs), 3x Leveraged All Weather Portfolio Using Utilities, 2x Leveraged All Weather Portfolio Using Utilities, The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, Riding the HEDGEFUNDIE Adventure (UPRO/TMF) on M1 Finance, Golden Butterfly Portfolio Review and M1 Finance ETF Pie, The Coffeehouse Portfolio Review and ETF Pie for M1 Finance, The Ivy Portfolio Review and ETF Pie for M1 Finance, The David Swensen Portfolio Review and ETF Pie for M1 Finance, shouldn’t be feared at low, zero, or negative rates, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8b6e/9067c2cece212f8c902653a1d85f3eb0fde0.pdf, Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Review, ETF’s, & Leverage, Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Review, ETFs, & Leverage, Treasury Bonds vs. Corporate Bonds – The Showdown, VIG vs. VYM – Comparing Vanguard’s 2 Popular Dividend ETFs, The 60/40 Portfolio Review and ETF Pie for M1 Finance, Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio Review and Vanguard ETFs To Use, The Best M1 Finance Dividend Pie for FIRE & Income Investors, Portfolio Asset Allocation by Age – Beginners to Retirees, The 5 Best Stock Brokers Online for Investing (2020 Review), The 4 Best Investing Apps for Beginners (2020 Review), The 7 Best Small Cap Value ETFs (3 From Vanguard). 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